Above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season predicted by NOAA

Published: Wednesday, 25 May 2022 10:02

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are predicting an above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season - this would make it the seventh consecutive above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA  forecasts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is predicting a range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence.

The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.